Ocean rate increases through 2026: what Canadian importers need to price now

Key Takeaways

• Ocean rate increases compound your landed cost and may push your RPP bond security below the CARM minimum—review posted amounts before your next K84 statement.
• Higher freight charges inflate transaction value and the customs duty you owe; recalculate MFN versus CUSMA preferential rates now.
• If you’re absorbing freight increases without adjusting classification or origin claims, you’re leaving drawback money on the table.
• Spot-rate volatility makes monthly CAD filing more expensive than annual contract terms; lock carriers and brokers together, not separately.

Rate increases are sticky, and your landed cost just got heavier

U.S. freight brokers spent the past week telling shippers not to expect 2025 conditions to return. Double-digit ocean rate increases are holding through 2026, and the knock-on effect for Canadian importers is immediate: landed cost climbs, transaction value for customs duty climbs with it, and the RPP bond security you posted under CARM Phase 2 may no longer cover 60 days of average duties and taxes.

If you filed your last CAD (Commercial Accounting Declaration) at $18 per unit landed and your next container quotes $22, you’re not just absorbing four dollars. You’re paying MFN duty or SIMA margins on that four-dollar spread, your CARM Client Portal monthly statement (K84) ticks up, and your bond cushion shrinks. The math is simple: freight and insurance are part of transaction value under the Customs Act Valuation for Duty Regulations, so every freight dollar you pay becomes a duty dollar you owe.

Why CUSMA origin suddenly matters again

When freight was cheap, the difference between paying 6.5% MFN duty and zero CUSMA preferential duty on a $12 FOB widget was 78 cents. Annoying, but not worth the paperwork fight with your supplier. Now that same widget lands at $16 FOB plus $6 freight, and the MFN duty bill is $1.43. Multiply by 10,000 units and you’re looking at $14,300 versus zero.

The problem: most importers don’t have valid CUSMA certificates of origin on file, and the ones who do haven’t verified regional value content since 2020. If you claim preference on the CAD without documentation, CBSA will demand proof during the next compliance verification, and the four-year lookback window means you’ll owe duties plus interest on every entry you filed. We see this every quarter, and it always starts the same way: freight went up, someone in procurement ticked the CUSMA box in the ERP, and nobody told the customs compliance team.

If your supplier is willing to certify origin, get the certificate now and file a corrected CAD for the past 90 days. If they won’t, stop claiming preference and budget for MFN duty. The middle path (claim preference, hope CBSA doesn’t ask) is expensive once they do.

RPP bond sizing under CARM when freight is volatile

CARM Phase 2 Release 3 introduced mandatory financial security for release prior to payment. The formula is straightforward: CBSA calculates your average monthly duties and taxes over the trailing 12 months, multiplies by two to cover 60 days, and requires you to post that amount as continuous bond security. If your landed cost climbs 20% because freight doubled, your monthly duty bill climbs with it, and your bond may fall below the minimum.

CBSA doesn’t send a courtesy email. The first signal is usually a hold notice on a PARS shipment that should have cleared in four hours. Your broker calls, you check the CARM Client Portal, and the security shortfall is sitting there in red. You can top up the bond same-day if your surety has capacity, but if you’re already at your credit limit, the container sits until you wire cash collateral or negotiate a new facility. Either way, you’ve just added three days of dwell and whatever detention your drayage carrier started charging after free time expired.

The fix: run the bond math every quarter using your K84 statement, not once a year during budget season. If your trailing 12-month average is trending up, call your surety now and increase the bond before CBSA flags it. Most sureties will adjust mid-term if you’re current on premium.

What to update in your landed-cost model this week

Canadian import managers still build landed cost the old way: FOB price, plus freight, plus duty at last year’s rate, plus brokerage. That works when freight and duty rates are stable. It doesn’t work when your ocean carrier just quoted you 30% over contract and your HS 6-digit tariff classification carries an MFN rate you haven’t checked since 2019.

Here’s the shorter list:

• Pull the current MFN duty rate for every HS code you import. CBSA publishes the tariff at cbsa-asfc.gc.ca and updates it annually. If you’re still using 2022 rates in your ERP, you’re undercosting every PO.
• Get spot-rate quotes from your freight forwarder and your ocean carrier separately. The broker fee and the freight rate should be two line items, not one all-in number. If your freight forwarder won’t break it out, find one who will.
• Check whether CUSMA, CETA, or CPTPP preferential duty applies. Zero duty beats a 20% freight increase every time, but only if you have the certificate and the RVC calculation on file before you ship.
• Add 5% to your total as a volatility buffer. If actual landed cost comes in lower, you’ve got margin. If it comes in higher, you’re not scrambling to re-bid the PO mid-shipment.

If you’re importing into a bonded warehouse in Montreal or another sufferance facility, the duty clock doesn’t start until you file the CAD and remove the goods. That gives you a few extra days to lock the classification and get the certificate, but it doesn’t fix bad math. You still need the landed-cost model right before the PO goes out.

HS classification and SIMA exposure when cost structures shift

One underappreciated casualty of freight volatility: importers start switching suppliers, and the new supplier’s product doesn’t quite match the old HS 6-digit classification you’ve been using for three years. You file the CAD under the old code because that’s what’s in the ERP, and six months later CBSA issues a verification letter pointing out that the new goods are subject goods under SIMA (Special Import Measures Act) and you owe anti-dumping margins retroactively.

We’ve seen this twice in Q4 2024 alone. The importer thought they were saving money by moving from a U.S. supplier to a Chinese supplier. They were, until the 45% AD margin hit. The correct move: run every new supplier’s product through HS classification review before the first shipment, and if the goods are subject to SIMA, get a scope ruling from CBSA or source from a non-subject country.

Freight increases make this worse because the cost pressure pushes procurement toward lower-cost origins, and those origins often carry trade remedies. If your team is sourcing from China, Vietnam, or South Korea for the first time, budget two weeks for classification and SIMA review before you issue the PO.

Filing cadence and duty payment timing

One last thing that trips up importers when freight rates spike: CARM monthly statements and payment timing. If you’re filing CADs on a pay-as-you-go basis (no RPP bond), CBSA expects payment within one business day of acceptance. If you’re on RPP, you’ve got until the K84 statement due date, usually the 24th of the month following the accounting period.

When landed cost is stable, that’s fine. When it jumps 25% in a single month, your cash-flow forecast is suddenly wrong by five figures, and your AP team is scrambling to cover the CARM portal withdrawal. The fix: if you’re importing more than $500,000 per year in duties and taxes, move to monthly CAD filing and budget the duty payment as a separate AP line item every month. Treat it like payroll: it’s not optional, it’s not negotiable, and it doesn’t wait for your vendor to pay their invoice.

Rate increases through 2026 mean your customs brokerage and freight costs are no longer separate budget lines. They’re tied together, and every freight dollar you pay becomes a duty dollar you owe. The importers who update their models now will bid the next RFQ correctly. The ones who don’t will eat the margin or break the contract trying to renegotiate price.

If your landed-cost model still has 2023 freight rates baked in, we should probably look at it together. Get in touch.

Frequently Asked Questions

How do ocean freight charges affect the customs duty I pay in Canada?

Freight and insurance are included in transaction value under the Customs Act Valuation for Duty Regulations, so a 20% freight increase also raises your duty base. If you’re paying 6.5% MFN duty, that freight bump costs you another 1.3% on the freight itself. CBSA publishes the full formula at https://www.cbsa-asfc.gc.ca/.

What is an RPP bond and why does it matter when freight rates go up?

An RPP (Release Prior to Payment) bond lets CBSA release your goods before you pay duties on the CAD. CARM Phase 2 requires minimum security equal to 60 days’ average duties and taxes. If landed cost climbs, your bond may fall short and CBSA will hold shipments until you top up.

Should I switch from MFN to CUSMA origin claims if my freight cost doubles?

Possibly. CUSMA preference eliminates or reduces duty to zero on qualifying goods, which offsets some of the freight pain. The catch: you need valid certificates of origin and regional value-content calculations on file before you file the CAD. If your supplier can’t document RVC, the savings evaporate.

Can I file a CBSA drawback claim to recover duty paid on high-freight shipments?

Yes, if you later obtain a valid CUSMA certificate or correct an HS classification error. The Customs Act gives you four years to file a B2G-2 drawback application under section 74. Most importers leave tens of thousands unclaimed because they don’t reconcile CADs quarterly.

How should I budget landed cost when spot rates are volatile?

Lock your ocean carrier and customs broker on overlapping contract terms, then price landed cost as a range: low MFN duty plus contract freight, high MFN duty plus spot-rate premium. Update every quarter and push the range into your ERP so procurement doesn’t bid on stale numbers.

Does higher freight cost trigger a CBSA verification of my transaction value?

Not automatically, but large swings in invoice-to-invoice freight for identical goods can flag CBSA risk models. If your April CAD shows $2,000 freight and your May CAD shows $4,500 for the same container, expect a verification request asking for carrier invoices and a written explanation.

Source: FreightWaves